A month out, Democrats lead the battle for Congress as Republicans outspend them
Forecasters now favor Democrats to win the House. The Senate is closer, with Democratic candidates competitive in Texas, Iowa and Ohio.
With 30 days until the November 3 midterms, Democrats are favored to win the House and are competitive in several Republican-held Senate seats, while Republicans hold a clear money advantage.
With a month to go before the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats are favored to win control of the House and are running close in several Senate races in Republican-held states, according to the latest polls and forecasts.
Republicans control both chambers. Every House seat is on the ballot, along with Senate races in 35 states and 36 governor's races.
The national mood is working against the party in power. President Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 37% in the Silver Bulletin polling average, and an AP-NORC poll released this week found just 26% of Americans approve of his handling of the economy, a low for either of his terms.
"Americans are disappointed, bordering on angry that President Trump hasn't delivered on core promises," Henry Olsen of the Ethics and Public Policy Center told Al Jazeera.
Democrats lead the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they will support for Congress, 50% to 41.1% in the Silver Bulletin average reported by Forbes on Friday.
The Cook Political Report last month shifted 15 House races toward Democrats and projected a Democratic gain of between five and 15 seats. Democrats need 218 seats for a majority.
The Senate is harder for Democrats, who need a net gain of at least four seats. "There's much more drama in the Senate than the House races," said Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 49% in a Fox News poll of likely voters. Fox polls also show Democrats narrowly ahead in Iowa and Michigan, and a USA Today/Suffolk poll has former Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Sen. Jon Husted 47% to 43% in Ohio. All of those leads are within or near the margin of error.
Republicans have the money edge. The Republican National Committee has $125.6 million in the bank, while the Democratic National Committee has $16.9 million and $17.6 million in debt, according to figures reported by Al Jazeera. In Texas alone, ads backing Paxton totaled $94 million in September, against $30 million for Talarico.
The battlefield has also been redrawn. Nine states have new House maps, and AP estimates that Republicans could gain up to nine seats from redistricting, though a strong Democratic year could cut that. On September 25, the Supreme Court rejected a Trump-backed map in Missouri for the third time, preserving the Kansas City seat held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver.
Trump has begun a final campaign push, appearing for Paxton in Texas this week.
Voting is already underway in several states. Texas voter registration closes Monday, Georgia's early voting begins October 13, North Carolina's on October 15 and Texas's on October 19.
