Trump blames the message. Consumer confidence points to a deeper economic challenge.
The president defends his record as a new survey shows households growing more pessimistic about business and jobs.
President Donald Trump said September 30 that he had done a poor job explaining his economic record, presenting public dissatisfaction as a communications problem as Republicans headed into the final stretch before the midterm elections.
Speaking at a White House Hispanic Heritage Month celebration, Trump continued to describe the economy in strongly positive terms. Reuters reported that the appearance preceded a planned 32-day campaign push before the November 3 vote for control of Congress.
His admission concerned how he had sold his record—not an acknowledgment that he believed the economy was performing badly. That distinction is clear in the published transcript of the speech, which pairs the complaint about messaging with claims of economic success.
What households reported
A Conference Board survey released the previous day showed consumer confidence falling 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, from 88.6 in August. Its measure of current business and labor-market conditions dropped 7.9 points, while the expectations measure fell for a third consecutive month to 63.6.
The survey was conducted September 1–23. Respondents' views of both the present and the near future worsened, according to the organization's release. Consumers expected weaker business and labor-market conditions over the following six months, while still expecting household incomes to rise, though less strongly than before.
Those details describe a more complicated picture than a blanket belief that everything is deteriorating. Perceptions of the current labor market weakened but remained positive overall. Expectations for household income were also still positive, even as confidence in other areas slipped.
A survey, not a measure of output
Consumer confidence captures what people report about economic conditions and expectations. It is not the same as gross domestic product, a payroll count or a direct measure of prices. The survey therefore provides evidence of the public mood rather than independently settling every claim in Trump's assessment of economic performance.
That mood nevertheless matters to the argument the president is making. A claim that voters have not heard enough about successes has to contend with households reporting concerns about their own prospects, not only a lack of information about national indicators.
The September 30 event left that disagreement intact: Trump defended the record, while the latest confidence report documented weakening perceptions. The November 3 election will occur after another month in which voters can compare the administration's claims with their own bills, work and income.
